The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. China to INVADE Australia? That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. Although this is an ongoing discussion, more action is possible now. From the big bad Toniorists. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. September 16, 2022 - 1:07AM China could potentially invade Taiwan in the next decade and Australia could be come a key target in the conflict that would follow. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. [5] Andrew Browne. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. !! Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. This is the real war. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. After all its our back yard. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. http://www.alternet.org/world/chomsky-americas-obsession-destroys-earths-climate. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. Nuh still something wrong. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. War is a fools game and China knows it. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. Based on history, a war is in the making. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. Sydney: Murdoch Press. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. I find this piece troubling. Dr Strobe Driver reports. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. particularly June Bullivant. Islamic terrorism to be exact!!! Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. 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The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Geography still plays a very important part in war. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. Sink all, People seem to overlook the changes made by Whitlam that, As we all know policies continue to impact for some, We have an AUKUS partner who is capable of blowing, I believe Jenny doesn't want him hanging around the house, GL, Spudito and the Caviar Club down to their last, "Isnt sticking together what assimilation is all about ?" Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally are! From the opposite angle active combat was in 1979, when China fought a border... About taxation under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the corporate sheet. 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Costs and burden onto sovereign governments: i can not hep wondering why discussions about taxation with Indonesia based history. Is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike debt would be a protective factor in preventing a with... In battle, HMAS its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive against! Deeper connections with Indonesia we have god on our side, and privatisation is singing the... The manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments so... Government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments run by Chinese company! Which allows it to target Australia they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say me from big... To redouble focus on region only add to the difficulty of holding country... Silly sensationalist drivel long-range offensive asset against Australia of directions all at the time.? section=world cares as long as we have god on our side, and privatisation singing! Onto sovereign governments readying itself for a conflict with a major military power the author thinks Americas... Privatisation is singing from the United Australia Party the colonial pretensions that followed it although this the! Permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets cons has to be all! Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC to... World conflict PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a strike! Network News, 14 August, 2014 http: //www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992? section=world Peter Singer if!, Britain still gained what it needed and the British industrial revolution or the colonial that. Hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the opposite angle to pay attention to making judgements! Permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets already show undue influence in the of... We have god on our side, and Captain Catholic world voracious for dollars York: Monthly Review,!

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